{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "content_version": "latest",
  "system_name": "Research Operating System (Research OS)",
  "description": "Canonical machine-readable manifest and index of catalogued research projects, evaluated candidates, datasets, and empirical evidence.",
  "published_at": "2026-09-14T14:26:10.412Z",
  "api_base_url": "/api",
  "entrypoints": {
    "manifest": "/research-manifest.json",
    "llms_txt": "/llms.txt",
    "llms_full_txt": "/llms-full.txt",
    "system_guide": "/AI_README.md",
    "operating_rules": "/AGENTS.md",
    "mcp_endpoint": "/mcp",
    "mcp_manifest": "/mcp/manifest.json"
  },
  "endpoints": {
    "research": "/api/research",
    "candidates": "/api/candidates",
    "datasets": "/api/datasets",
    "literature": "/api/literature",
    "documents": "/api/documents",
    "projects": "/api/projects",
    "experiments": "/api/experiments",
    "findings": "/api/findings",
    "evidence": "/api/evidence",
    "sources": "/api/sources",
    "topics": "/api/topics",
    "signals": "/api/signals",
    "timeline": "/api/timeline",
    "search": "/api/search",
    "mcp": "/api/mcp"
  },
  "schemas": {
    "topics": "/schemas/topic.schema.json",
    "signals": "/schemas/signal.schema.json",
    "candidates": "/schemas/candidate.schema.json",
    "datasets": "/schemas/dataset.schema.json",
    "literature": "/schemas/literature.schema.json",
    "documents": "/schemas/document.schema.json",
    "projects": "/schemas/project.schema.json",
    "experiments": "/schemas/experiment.schema.json",
    "findings": "/schemas/finding.schema.json",
    "evidence": "/schemas/evidence.schema.json",
    "sources": "/schemas/source.schema.json",
    "timeline": "/schemas/timeline-event.schema.json"
  },
  "counts": {
    "topics": 5,
    "signals": 9,
    "candidates": 8,
    "datasets": 7,
    "literature": 1,
    "documents": 1,
    "projects": 0,
    "experiments": 0,
    "findings": 0,
    "evidence": 5,
    "sources": 6,
    "timeline": 3
  },
  "entities": {
    "topics": [
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "name": "Transisi Energi, Elektrifikasi & Dekarbonisasi Industri",
        "slug": "energy-transition-electrification",
        "domain": "infrastructure",
        "description": "Eksplorasi disparitas kualitas elektrifikasi rumah tangga, elastisitas konsumsi listrik industri vs rumah tangga, dinamika captive power manufaktur, dan evaluasi kesiapan bauran energi baru terbarukan (EBT) daerah.",
        "keywords": [
          "transisi-energi",
          "rasio-elektrifikasi",
          "captive-power",
          "energi-terbarukan",
          "statistik-listrik",
          "pln",
          "susenas",
          "podes",
          "pdrb"
        ],
        "related_topics": [
          "topic-structural-transformation",
          "topic-poverty-vulnerability"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "topic-food-security-inflation",
        "name": "Ketahanan Pangan, Nilai Tukar Petani & Inflasi Volatile Foods",
        "slug": "food-security-inflation",
        "domain": "agriculture",
        "description": "Menghubungkan sisi hulu produksi pertanian (KSA padi, Nilai Tukar Petani/NTP) dengan stabilitas harga konsumen dan inflasi makanan (IHK Volatile Foods) di 90 kota.",
        "keywords": [
          "ketahanan-pangan",
          "inflasi-makanan",
          "nilai-tukar-petani",
          "produksi-padi",
          "ihk",
          "volatile-foods"
        ],
        "related_topics": [
          "topic-poverty-vulnerability",
          "topic-structural-transformation"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "topic-human-capital-development",
        "name": "Modal Manusia & Akses Layanan Dasar (Pembangunan Manusia)",
        "slug": "human-capital-development",
        "domain": "social",
        "description": "Evaluasi pencapaian Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) pada tingkat 514 Kabupaten/Kota di Indonesia berdasarkan dimensi kesehatan (UHH), pendidikan (RLS/HLS), dan standar hidup layak.",
        "keywords": [
          "indeks-pembangunan-manusia",
          "ipm",
          "angka-harapan-hidup",
          "rata-rata-lama-sekolah",
          "pengeluaran-riil",
          "ketimpangan-spasial"
        ],
        "related_topics": [
          "topic-poverty-vulnerability"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "topic-poverty-vulnerability",
        "name": "Sosio-Ekonomi, Kemiskinan & Kerentanan Wilayah",
        "slug": "poverty-vulnerability",
        "domain": "social",
        "description": "Eksplorasi dinamika kemiskinan, ketimpangan pengeluaran (Gini Ratio), garis kemiskinan, dan kerentanan ekonomi regional antar-provinsi dan kabupaten/kota di Indonesia.",
        "keywords": [
          "kemiskinan",
          "gini-ratio",
          "garis-kemiskinan",
          "pengangguran",
          "susenas",
          "sakernas"
        ],
        "related_topics": [
          "topic-human-capital-development",
          "topic-food-security-inflation"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "topic-structural-transformation",
        "name": "Transformasi Struktural, Pertumbuhan PDRB & Ketenagakerjaan",
        "slug": "structural-transformation",
        "domain": "economy",
        "description": "Analisis produktivitas sektoral PDRB ADHK 2010 (industri, pertanian, perdagangan), elastisitas penyerapan tenaga kerja (Sakernas), serta perdagangan luar negeri regional.",
        "keywords": [
          "pdrb",
          "pertumbuhan-ekonomi",
          "transformasi-struktural",
          "industri-pengolahan",
          "ketenagakerjaan",
          "ekspor-impor"
        ],
        "related_topics": [
          "topic-poverty-vulnerability",
          "topic-food-security-inflation"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "signals": [
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-captive-power-shift",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "type": "statistical",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Statistik Listrik & Industri Manufaktur Besar Sedang",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP bps-statistics query captive power & industri IBS",
          "verification_status": "partially-verified"
        },
        "observation": "Survei IBS dan Publikasi Statistik Captive Power BPS memperlihatkan konsentrasi kapasitas pembangkit mandiri industri manufaktur di kawasan industri, dipengaruhi oleh struktur tarif dan tingkat keandalan pasokan lokal.",
        "confidence": "medium",
        "period": "2014–2024",
        "geography": "Sentra Kawasan Industri Manufaktur (Jawa, Sumatera, Sulawesi)"
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-ebt-regional-gap",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "type": "statistical",
        "source_id": "src-den",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "file",
          "source_type": "file",
          "source_name": "Dewan Energi Nasional (DEN)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "Audit dokumen fisik PDF Buku Bauran Energi DEN 2022 & Repositori Perda RUED",
          "verification_status": "partially-verified"
        },
        "observation": "Evaluasi implementasi RUED-P oleh Dewan Energi Nasional menunjukkan disparitas lebar antara target bauran EBT daerah dan realisasi di lapangan, dengan kendala utama integrasi jaringan transmisi dan kapasitas fiskal daerah.",
        "confidence": "medium",
        "period": "2015–2024",
        "geography": "34 Provinsi"
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-electrification-quality-gap",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "type": "statistical",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Susenas & Podes",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP get_static_table 1555 & Podes 1759",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "observation": "Klaim Rasio Elektrifikasi administratif mencapai >99,7%, namun mikrodata Susenas dan Podes mengindikasikan disparitas kualitas nyata: banyak rumah tangga di daerah 3T masih mengandalkan penerangan non-PLN darurat atau panel surya mandiri berdaya rendah tanpa pasokan listrik 24 jam.",
        "confidence": "high",
        "period": "1993–2024 (Susenas & Podes)",
        "geography": "514 Kabupaten/Kota"
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-food-price-volatility",
        "topic_id": "topic-food-security-inflation",
        "type": "statistical",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Inflasi IHK",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-01",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP find_variable inflasi kelompok makanan 90 kota",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "observation": "Kenaikan indeks harga yang dibayar petani (Ib / Var 12) dan penurunan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP / Var 10) memiliki transmisi jeda waktu (transmission lag) terhadap lonjakan inflasi kelompok makanan (Var 1890) dan IHK 90 kota (Var 1709) di tingkat konsumen.",
        "confidence": "high",
        "period": "2018–2024 (Bulanan)",
        "geography": "34 Provinsi sentra produksi & 90 Kota IHK"
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-ga-energy-interest",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "type": "analytics",
        "source_id": "src-ga",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "ga_mcp",
          "source_type": "ga_mcp",
          "source_name": "Google Analytics 4 Property 553910715",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "GA4 RunReport searchTerm query",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "observation": "Audit penelusuran digital pada properti Google Analytics (ID 553910715) mencatat 0 query penelusuran untuk kata kunci 'panel surya', 'PLTS atap', dan 'energi terbarukan'. Perumusan riset energi wajib didasarkan penuh pada bukti empiris data resmi BPS dan ESDM.",
        "confidence": "high",
        "period": "2024–2026 (All-time tracking)",
        "geography": "Observed Users Scope",
        "scope": {
          "property": "properties/553910715",
          "audience": "observed_users",
          "geography": "unknown",
          "representativeness": "not representative of general Indonesian population"
        }
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-industrial-electricity-elasticity",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "type": "statistical",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Statistik Listrik & PDRB",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP bps-statistics query tarif industri PLN & PDRB manufaktur",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "observation": "Penjualan tenaga listrik PLN golongan Industri (Tarif I) dan Bisnis (Tarif B) menunjukkan korelasi kuat dan elastisitas siklikal mendahului pertumbuhan PDRB sektor manufaktur triwulanan BPS, menjadikannya kandidat sinyal nowcasting frekuensi tinggi.",
        "confidence": "high",
        "period": "2010–2024 (Kuartalan & Tahunan)",
        "geography": "34 Provinsi & Wilayah Distribusi PLN"
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-ipm-district-gap",
        "topic_id": "topic-human-capital-development",
        "type": "statistical",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Indeks Pembangunan Manusia",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-01",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP WebAPI IPM 514 Kabupaten/Kota",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "observation": "Kesenjangan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia / IPM (Var 7) pada 514 Kabupaten/Kota menunjukkan perbedaan tajam pada komponen pembatas utama (bottleneck factor), antara angka harapan hidup (Var 3), rata-rata lama sekolah (Var 5), atau daya beli riil (Var 6).",
        "confidence": "high",
        "period": "2010–2024 (Tahunan)",
        "geography": "514 Kabupaten/Kota"
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-pdrb-sectoral-shift",
        "topic_id": "topic-structural-transformation",
        "type": "statistical",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS PDRB Sektoral ADHK 2010",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-01",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP WebAPI PDRB ADHK 17 Lapangan Usaha",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "observation": "Pergeseran struktur ekonomi dari sektor agraris ke industri pengolahan/jasa tercermin pada laju pertumbuhan PDRB ADHK (Var 291) dan distribusi sektoral (Var 286), namun elastisitas penyerapan tenaga kerja per sektor (Sakernas Var 520/543) bervariasi signifikan antar-daerah.",
        "confidence": "high",
        "period": "2010–2024 (Triwulanan & Tahunan)",
        "geography": "34/38 Provinsi"
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "sig-poverty-disparity",
        "topic_id": "topic-poverty-vulnerability",
        "type": "statistical",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Kemiskinan & Ketimpangan",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-01",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP WebAPI Persentase Penduduk Miskin P0 Susenas",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "observation": "Kesenjangan persentase penduduk miskin (Var 184) dan Garis Kemiskinan (Var 182) antara perkotaan dan perdesaan, serta antar-provinsi (Jawa vs Luar Jawa, KBI vs KTI), dipengaruhi oleh fluktuasi ketenagakerjaan/TPT (Var 543) dan daya beli riil per kapita.",
        "confidence": "high",
        "period": "2010–2024 (Tahunan/Semesteran Maret & September)",
        "geography": "34/38 Provinsi & 514 Kabupaten/Kota"
      }
    ],
    "candidates": [
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "cand-captive-power-industrial-transition",
        "title": "Tipologi & Prediksi Penetrasi Captive Power Industri Manufaktur Menuju Dekarbonisasi",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Statistik Listrik & Industri Manufaktur IBS",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP bps-statistics query variable captive power & IBS",
          "verification_status": "partially-verified"
        },
        "status": "screening",
        "problem_statement": "Porsi pembangkit mandiri (captive power berbasis batu bara dan solar) di kawasan industri menyumbang emisi tinggi; diperlukan pemodelan determinan pabrik yang beralih atau mempertahankan pembangkit mandiri vs on-grid PLN/EBT.",
        "signal_ids": [
          "sig-captive-power-shift"
        ],
        "potential_dataset_ids": [
          "ds-bps-electricity-consumption-generation"
        ],
        "potential_target": "Probabilitas adopsi captive power & rasio intensitas listrik mandiri (kWh mandiri / total kWh)",
        "potential_features": [
          "Subsektor Industri Pengolahan KBLI 2 Digit dan 3 Digit",
          "Jumlah Tenaga Kerja dan Skala Nilai Tambah Bruto Pabrik",
          "Status Permodalan Perusahaan (PMA / PMDN)",
          "Tingkat Keandalan Jaringan Listrik Regional (SAIDI / SAIFI PLN)",
          "Diferensiasi Tarif Tenaga Listrik Industri Regional"
        ],
        "scores": {
          "relevance": 0.85,
          "data_evidence": 0.88,
          "impact": 0.82,
          "data_quality": 0.82,
          "temporal_spatial_coverage": 0.85,
          "coverage": 0.85,
          "ml_potential": 0.88,
          "novelty": 0.85,
          "feasibility": 0.8
        },
        "confidence": "medium",
        "limitations": [
          "Akses mikrodata IBS level perusahaan memerlukan standardisasi pembersihan dan izin khusus data sensus BPS"
        ],
        "leakage_risks": [
          "Hindari penggunaan variabel biaya bahan bakar yang berkolinieritas langsung dengan rasio output captive power"
        ],
        "literature_ids": [
          "lit-burke-2019-indonesia-electricity"
        ],
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ev-lit-burke-captive-barrier"
        ],
        "research_gap": {
          "established": "Kajian makro (Burke & Abdurrahman, 2019) membuktikan ekspansi captive power batu bara menghambat dekarbonisasi jaringan PLN.",
          "uncertain": "Sensitivitas elastisitas peralihan pabrik manufaktur antar-subsektor KBLI terhadap tarif PLN dan keandalan regional belum dimodelkan secara mikro.",
          "geographic_gap": "Sebagian besar studi terdahulu berfokus pada agregat nasional dan sistem interkoneksi Jawa-Bali, mengabaikan disparitas captive power di koridor industri Luar Jawa.",
          "temporal_gap": "Studi terdahulu berhenti pada data 2018; belum menangkap lonjakan kapasitas captive pasca implementasi UU Minerba dan hilirisasi nikel/smelter.",
          "data_gap": "Belum mengintegrasikan mikrodata Industri Besar dan Sedang (IBS) BPS dengan indikator SAIDI/SAIFI regional PLN.",
          "methodological_gap": "Kajian terdahulu bersifat deskriptif kualitatif; belum menerapkan klasifikasi Machine Learning (Gradient Boosting / SVR) untuk prediksi probabilitas adopsi captive power.",
          "proposed_contribution": "Mengembangkan model prediktif probabilitas adopsi dan intensitas captive power level mikrodata IBS 2015-2024 terkalibrasi dengan keandalan jaringan regional."
        },
        "decision": "screening",
        "decision_reason": "Potensi pemodelan mikrodata IBS sangat tinggi untuk dekarbonisasi industri, didukung tinjauan pustaka lit-burke-2019-indonesia-electricity.",
        "project_slug": null
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "cand-electricity-industrial-nowcasting",
        "title": "Nowcasting Pertumbuhan PDRB Manufaktur Daerah Berbasis Konsumsi Listrik Industri",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Statistik Listrik & PDRB Sektoral ADHK",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP bps-statistics find_variable tarif industri & PDRB kuartalan",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "status": "shortlisted",
        "problem_statement": "Pertumbuhan PDRB triwulanan dirilis BPS dengan jeda 5-6 minggu, sementara volume konsumsi listrik industri (Tarif I PLN & Captive Power IBS) dapat menjadi leading indicator frekuensi tinggi untuk mengestimasi arah sektor manufaktur regional.",
        "signal_ids": [
          "sig-industrial-electricity-elasticity"
        ],
        "potential_dataset_ids": [
          "ds-bps-electricity-consumption-generation",
          "ds-bps-pdrb-structural-transformation"
        ],
        "potential_target": "Laju Pertumbuhan PDRB Sektor Industri Pengolahan Triwulanan (y-on-y / q-to-q)",
        "potential_features": [
          "Volume Penjualan Listrik Industri Tarif I1-I4 (MWh)",
          "Volume Penjualan Listrik Bisnis Tarif B1-B3 (MWh)",
          "Beban Puncak Sistem Kelistrikan Regional",
          "Output Daya Captive Power Industri Manufaktur IBS",
          "Laju Pertumbuhan PDRB Manufaktur Lag 1-4 Kuartal"
        ],
        "scores": {
          "relevance": 0.88,
          "data_evidence": 0.9,
          "impact": 0.85,
          "data_quality": 0.85,
          "temporal_spatial_coverage": 0.88,
          "coverage": 0.88,
          "ml_potential": 0.85,
          "novelty": 0.75,
          "feasibility": 0.88
        },
        "confidence": "high",
        "limitations": [
          "Data listrik sebagian wilayah PLN masih menggabungkan unit operasional lintas batas administrasi provinsi"
        ],
        "leakage_risks": [
          "Konsumsi listrik kuartal berjalan tidak boleh memakai revisi data tahunan ex-post dalam rolling split out-of-sample"
        ],
        "decision": "shortlisted",
        "decision_reason": "Data statistik listrik PLN dan PDRB triwulanan BPS memiliki keselarasan waktu yang kuat untuk nowcasting frekuensi tinggi menggunakan Dynamic Factor Models dan Regularized Regression.",
        "project_slug": null
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "cand-electrification-quality-disparity",
        "title": "Deteksi Dini Disparitas Kualitas Elektrifikasi & Akses Energi Rumah Tangga",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Susenas & Podes Panel",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP get_static_table 1555 & Podes 1759",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "status": "shortlisted",
        "problem_statement": "Klaim Rasio Elektrifikasi administratif >99% menyamarkan kesenjangan kualitas riil, di mana rumah tangga di daerah 3T masih mengandalkan penerangan non-PLN terbatas tanpa keandalan daya untuk aktivitas produktif.",
        "signal_ids": [
          "sig-electrification-quality-gap"
        ],
        "potential_dataset_ids": [
          "ds-bps-electricity-access-panel"
        ],
        "potential_target": "Rasio Rumah Tangga berpenerangan Non-PLN / Bukan Listrik / Menyalur (Susenas BPS)",
        "potential_features": [
          "PDRB ADHK per Kapita menurut Kabupaten/Kota (Lag t-1)",
          "Pangsa PDRB Kategori D Provinsi terhadap Total PDRB Provinsi (Lag t-1)",
          "Persentase Penduduk Miskin P0 Tingkat Kabupaten/Kota (Lag t-1)",
          "Rasio Desa Berlistrik dan Penerangan Jalan Desa (Podes)",
          "Topografi Keterisolasian Desa Kepulauan/Pegunungan (Podes)",
          "Alokasi Belanja Modal Infrastruktur APBD Daerah"
        ],
        "scores": {
          "relevance": 0.9,
          "data_evidence": 0.95,
          "impact": 0.88,
          "data_quality": 0.9,
          "temporal_spatial_coverage": 0.92,
          "coverage": 0.92,
          "ml_potential": 0.82,
          "novelty": 0.8,
          "feasibility": 0.9
        },
        "confidence": "high",
        "limitations": [
          "Survei Podes dilaksanakan tri-tahunan (2014, 2018, 2021, 2024); Triennial Panel Model (4-wave murni) ditetapkan sebagai MODEL UTAMA, sedangkan panel interpolasi tahunan hanya sebagai model sekunder/eksploratif karena missingness 63.64%",
          "Variabel jarak ke gardu induk tidak tersedia di BPS/publik; diproksikan melalui rasio penerangan jalan desa dan kemudahan transportasi Podes",
          "Pemekaran 4 DOB Papua (2022) memerlukan penyesuaian kode wilayah referensi MFD BPS baseline 514 kabupaten/kota; 7 kabupaten pemekaran 2014 ditandai dengan flag is_backcasted: true untuk robustness check terpisah"
        ],
        "leakage_risks": [
          "Variabel kemiskinan (P0) dan PDRB berasal dari tahun yang sama; wajib menggunakan lag time t-1 untuk predictive setup",
          "Breakdown 17 sektor PDRB kab/kota tidak tersedia seragam via API terpusat; anti target leakage diterapkan via temporal lagging mutlak (t-1) pada PDRB Total Kab/Kota dan PDRB Kategori D Kontrol Provinsi"
        ],
        "decision": "shortlisted",
        "decision_reason": "Dataset Susenas, Podes, dan PDRB 514 kabupaten/kota terverifikasi. Triennial Panel Model (4-gelombang murni) siap menjadi model utama tanpa missingness sintetik, didukung spatial econometrics dan supervised ML. Menunggu persetujuan peneliti untuk promosi.",
        "project_slug": null
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "cand-food-inflation-nowcasting",
        "title": "Nowcasting & Peramalan Tekanan Inflasi Volatile Foods Berbasis Indikator Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP)",
        "topic_id": "topic-food-security-inflation",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Inflasi IHK & Kerangka Sampel Area Padi",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-05",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP WebAPI Subject 3 / 1498 / Var 1",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "status": "shortlisted",
        "problem_statement": "Lonjakan inflasi komponen makanan (volatile foods) berdampak langsung pada penurunan daya beli masyarakat rentan dan stabilitas moneter daerah, namun intervensi operasi pasar TPID sering terlambat karena menunggu rilis resmi IHK.",
        "signal_ids": [
          "sig-food-price-volatility"
        ],
        "potential_dataset_ids": [
          "ds-bps-food-security-inflation-monthly"
        ],
        "potential_target": "Inflasi Kelompok Makanan Bulanan MoM / YoY (Var ID 1890) pada 90 Kota IHK",
        "potential_features": [
          "Nilai Tukar Petani Gabungan & Tanaman Pangan (Var ID 10 & 14)",
          "Indeks Harga Diterima Petani / It (Var ID 11)",
          "Indeks Harga Dibayar Petani / Ib (Var ID 12)",
          "Luas Panen & Produksi Padi KSA (Var ID 1498 / 23)",
          "Inflasi Umum Bulanan Lag 1–3 Bulan (Var ID 1)"
        ],
        "scores": {
          "relevance": 0.95,
          "data_evidence": 0.9,
          "impact": 0.95,
          "data_quality": 0.85,
          "temporal_spatial_coverage": 0.8,
          "coverage": 0.8,
          "ml_potential": 0.85,
          "novelty": 0.75,
          "feasibility": 0.85
        },
        "confidence": "high",
        "limitations": [
          "Perubahan tahun dasar IHK pada awal 2024 membutuhkan penyambungan indeks (splicing)"
        ],
        "leakage_risks": [
          "Fitur inflasi umum bulan berjalan tidak boleh digunakan untuk memprediksi inflasi kelompok makanan pada bulan yang sama"
        ],
        "decision": "shortlisted",
        "decision_reason": "Data runtun waktu bulanan 2018–2024 (84 bulan × 34 provinsi / 90 kota) sangat ideal untuk pemodelan multivariate time series forecasting (SARIMAX, LSTM, SVR).",
        "project_slug": null
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "cand-pdrb-structural-nowcasting",
        "title": "Nowcasting Pertumbuhan PDRB Triwulanan & Tipologi Wilayah Berbasis Produktivitas Sektoral",
        "topic_id": "topic-structural-transformation",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS PDRB ADHK & Sakernas",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-05",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP WebAPI PDRB 17 Sektor & TPT Sakernas",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "status": "screening",
        "problem_statement": "Pertumbuhan PDRB triwulanan dirilis BPS dengan jeda 5–6 minggu setelah kuartal berakhir, sehingga pemda dan pelaku bisnis membutuhkan estimasi dini berbasis indikator sektoral berfrekuensi tinggi.",
        "signal_ids": [
          "sig-pdrb-sectoral-shift"
        ],
        "potential_dataset_ids": [
          "ds-bps-pdrb-structural-transformation"
        ],
        "potential_target": "Laju Pertumbuhan PDRB ADHK 2010 Triwulanan (Var ID 291)",
        "potential_features": [
          "PDRB ADHK Sektor Industri Pengolahan, Pertanian, Perdagangan, Konstruksi (Var ID 286)",
          "PDRB Per Kapita (Var ID 288)",
          "Distribusi Persentase PDRB Daerah (Var ID 289)",
          "Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka & Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja (Var ID 520 / 543)",
          "Nilai Ekspor dan Impor Daerah (Var ID 8)"
        ],
        "scores": {
          "relevance": 0.85,
          "data_evidence": 0.85,
          "impact": 0.85,
          "data_quality": 0.8,
          "temporal_spatial_coverage": 0.8,
          "coverage": 0.8,
          "ml_potential": 0.75,
          "novelty": 0.65,
          "feasibility": 0.75
        },
        "confidence": "medium",
        "limitations": [
          "Jeda publikasi data triwulanan membuat ukuran sampel per provinsi terbatas pada 60 kuartal (2010–2024)"
        ],
        "leakage_risks": [
          "Fitur PDRB sektoral adalah komponen penyusun langsung dari total PDRB sehingga nowcasting harus menggunakan data lag atau indikator proksi bulanan"
        ],
        "decision": "screening",
        "decision_reason": "Dataset solid dan siap diolah; perlu formulasi proksi bulanan sebelum masuk ke tahap eksperimen penuh.",
        "project_slug": null
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "cand-poverty-early-warning",
        "title": "Deteksi Dini Kerentanan Kemiskinan Daerah Berbasis Indikator Ketenagakerjaan & Garis Kemiskinan",
        "topic_id": "topic-poverty-vulnerability",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Susenas Kemiskinan & Gini Ratio",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-05",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP WebAPI Susenas Maret & September",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "status": "shortlisted",
        "problem_statement": "Angka kemiskinan resmi (P0) dirilis dua kali setahun (Maret & September) dengan jeda publikasi, sementara guncangan ketenagakerjaan dan kenaikan harga kebutuhan pokok memerlukan penargetan bantuan sosial adaptif yang lebih cepat.",
        "signal_ids": [
          "sig-poverty-disparity"
        ],
        "potential_dataset_ids": [
          "ds-bps-poverty-vulnerability-panel"
        ],
        "potential_target": "Persentase Penduduk Miskin (P0 / Var ID 184) atau Klasifikasi Risiko Lonjakan Kemiskinan",
        "potential_features": [
          "Gini Ratio (Var ID 98)",
          "Garis Kemiskinan Makanan vs Non-Makanan (Var ID 182)",
          "Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka / TPT (Var ID 543)",
          "Pengeluaran Riil per Kapita Disesuaikan (Var ID 6)",
          "Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah (Var ID 5)",
          "Angka Harapan Hidup (Var ID 3)"
        ],
        "scores": {
          "relevance": 0.9,
          "data_evidence": 0.9,
          "impact": 0.9,
          "data_quality": 0.85,
          "temporal_spatial_coverage": 0.85,
          "coverage": 0.85,
          "ml_potential": 0.8,
          "novelty": 0.7,
          "feasibility": 0.85
        },
        "confidence": "high",
        "limitations": [
          "Survei Susenas agregat provinsi tidak menangkap disparitas mikro di tingkat desa tanpa integrasi Podes"
        ],
        "leakage_risks": [
          "Garis kemiskinan dan persentase kemiskinan dihitung dari survei Susenas yang sama sehingga perlu pembagian lag temporal yang ketat"
        ],
        "decision": "shortlisted",
        "decision_reason": "Ketersediaan data panel 34 provinsi × 15 tahun (N×T ≈ 510) dan 514 kabupaten/kota sangat solid untuk pemodelan regresi panel dan klasifikasi risiko dini.",
        "project_slug": null
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "cand-regional-ebt-readiness-gap",
        "title": "Evaluasi Kesenjangan Potensi vs Realisasi Pembangkit EBT Daerah (RUED-P Gap)",
        "topic_id": "topic-energy-transition-electrification",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "file",
          "source_type": "file",
          "source_name": "Kementerian ESDM & Dewan Energi Nasional",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "Audit dokumen fisik PDF Buku Bauran Energi DEN 2022 & Laporan HEESI",
          "verification_status": "partially-verified"
        },
        "status": "screening",
        "problem_statement": "Rencana Umum Energi Daerah (RUED-P) menargetkan bauran EBT tinggi di tiap provinsi, namun realisasi di lapangan sangat timpang antar-wilayah akibat kendala kapasitas fiskal daerah dan keterbatasan integrasi jaringan transmisi.",
        "signal_ids": [
          "sig-ebt-regional-gap"
        ],
        "potential_dataset_ids": [
          "ds-esdm-ebt-regional-balance",
          "ds-bps-electricity-access-panel"
        ],
        "potential_target": "Gap Realisasi Bauran EBT terhadap Target RUED (%) & Kapasitas Terpasang EBT per Kapita (kW/kapita)",
        "potential_features": [
          "Potensi Teknis Surya, Air, dan Biomassa Daerah (Geoportal ESDM)",
          "Kapasitas Fiskal Daerah (Rasio PAD terhadap APBD)",
          "Cadangan Daya Listrik (Reserve Margin) Sistem Kelistrikan Regional",
          "Rasio Elektrifikasi Dasar dan Tingkat Kemiskinan Daerah"
        ],
        "scores": {
          "relevance": 0.86,
          "data_evidence": 0.82,
          "impact": 0.88,
          "data_quality": 0.8,
          "temporal_spatial_coverage": 0.82,
          "coverage": 0.82,
          "ml_potential": 0.8,
          "novelty": 0.82,
          "feasibility": 0.82
        },
        "confidence": "medium",
        "limitations": [
          "Pelaporan realisasi RUED-P provinsi oleh Dinas ESDM ke DEN memiliki jeda publikasi 1-2 tahun antar-wilayah (laporan komparatif nasional terakhir Buku Bauran Energi DEN 2022)",
          "Sebagian provinsi mengalami kekosongan data historis karena keterlambatan penetapan Perda RUED (seperti Kaltim) atau terdampak fragmentasi administrasi pemekaran 4 DOB Papua",
          "Dokumen target Perda RUED umumnya menetapkan milestone 5 tahunan (2025/2050), sehingga memerlukan interpolasi linier target untuk panel tahunan kontinu",
          "Data belum terverifikasi melalui MCP; ketiadaan WebAPI resmi ESDM/DEN mengharuskan verifikasi berstatus partially-verified berbasis audit dokumen manual"
        ],
        "leakage_risks": [
          "Jangan memasukkan target revisi RUED yang ditetapkan setelah tahun observasi berjalan"
        ],
        "decision": "screening",
        "decision_reason": "Relevansi kebijakan transisi energi tinggi, namun data realisasi EBT daerah berstatus partially-verified dengan reporting lag 1-2 tahun dan ketiadaan WebAPI; membutuhkan pipeline ekstraksi semi-otomatis dari dokumen Perda PDF DEN sebelum dipromosikan ke tahap eksperimen.",
        "project_slug": null
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "cand-spatial-ipm-bottleneck",
        "title": "Pemodelan Spasial & Analisis Hambatan Kritis (Bottleneck) IPM 514 Kabupaten/Kota",
        "topic_id": "topic-human-capital-development",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "BPS Indeks Pembangunan Manusia 514 Kab/Kota",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-05",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS MCP WebAPI Dimensi IPM (UHH, RLS, Pengeluaran Riil)",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "status": "shortlisted",
        "problem_statement": "Peningkatan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di tingkat kabupaten/kota sering terhambat oleh disparitas spasial dan ketidaktahuan pemda mengenai faktor pembatas utama (apakah kesehatan/UHH, lama sekolah, atau daya beli riil).",
        "signal_ids": [
          "sig-ipm-district-gap"
        ],
        "potential_dataset_ids": [
          "ds-bps-human-development-district-panel"
        ],
        "potential_target": "Indeks Pembangunan Manusia / IPM (Var ID 7) atau Klasifikasi Status IPM (Sangat Tinggi, Tinggi, Sedang, Rendah)",
        "potential_features": [
          "Angka Harapan Hidup saat Lahir / UHH (Var ID 3)",
          "Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah / RLS (Var ID 5)",
          "Harapan Lama Sekolah / HLS (Var ID 4)",
          "Pengeluaran Riil per Kapita Disesuaikan (Var ID 6)"
        ],
        "scores": {
          "relevance": 0.9,
          "data_evidence": 0.95,
          "impact": 0.9,
          "data_quality": 0.9,
          "temporal_spatial_coverage": 0.95,
          "coverage": 0.95,
          "ml_potential": 0.85,
          "novelty": 0.75,
          "feasibility": 0.9
        },
        "confidence": "high",
        "limitations": [
          "IPM adalah indeks komposit matematis sehingga pemodelan ML harus diarahkan pada analisis kontribusi spasial (Spatial Lag / GWR / SHAP) atau imputasi estimasi area kecil (SAE)"
        ],
        "leakage_risks": [
          "Komponen penyusun IPM memiliki korelasi mekanis langsung dengan angka IPM sehingga analisis harus fokus pada dekomposisi bottleneck dan spasial spillover"
        ],
        "decision": "shortlisted",
        "decision_reason": "Ukuran sampel sangat besar (7.710 observasi panel = 514 daerah × 15 tahun), menjadikannya dataset paling komprehensif untuk analisis spasial di Indonesia.",
        "project_slug": null
      }
    ],
    "datasets": [
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "ds-bps-electricity-access-panel",
        "slug": "bps-electricity-access-panel",
        "name": "BPS Panel Akses & Kualitas Elektrifikasi Rumah Tangga",
        "description": "Panel data tahunan dan tri-tahunan mengenai sumber penerangan utama rumah tangga, ketersediaan listrik PLN vs non-PLN, dan infrastruktur penerangan jalan umum desa.",
        "domain": "infrastructure",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS Indonesia)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS Static Table 1555 & Podes 1759 via bps-statistics MCP",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "geography": {
          "level": "Regency/City",
          "coverage": "514 Kabupaten/Kota & 34/38 Provinsi"
        },
        "coverage": {
          "start": "2014",
          "end": "2024",
          "frequency": "Annual / Triennial"
        },
        "granularity": "Kabupaten/Kota × Tahun",
        "sample_size": "514 Kabupaten/Kota × 10 Tahun ≈ 5.140 baris panel",
        "variables": [
          {
            "name": "persentase_rt_listrik_pln_meteran",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Persentase rumah tangga dengan sumber penerangan listrik PLN menggunakan meteran mandiri (Susenas)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "persentase_rt_listrik_pln_non_meteran",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Persentase rumah tangga dengan listrik PLN tanpa meteran mandiri / menyalur (Susenas)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "persentase_rt_listrik_non_pln",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Persentase rumah tangga menggunakan listrik non-PLN (genset swasta/komunal, turbin mikro)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "persentase_rt_bukan_listrik",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Persentase rumah tangga tanpa listrik / pelita / panel surya mandiri terbatas",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "desa_pengguna_listrik",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Jumlah desa/kelurahan menurut keberadaan keluarga pengguna listrik (Podes Tabel 1759)",
            "unit": "Desa"
          },
          {
            "name": "persentase_penduduk_miskin_p0",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Persentase penduduk miskin P0 tingkat kabupaten/kota",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "pdrb_per_kapita_adhk",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "PDRB per kapita atas dasar harga konstan 2010",
            "unit": "Juta Rupiah/Kapita"
          },
          {
            "name": "topografi_keterisolasian_desa",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Rasio desa di daerah lereng/puncak atau kepulauan terpencil (Podes)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "pdrb_kategori_d_share_provinsi_lag1",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Pangsa PDRB Kategori D (Pengadaan Listrik dan Gas) terhadap total PDRB provinsi tahun t-1 sebagai kontrol kontekstual makro anti-leakage",
            "unit": "%"
          }
        ],
        "data_quality": {
          "completeness": "Tinggi pada level kabupaten/kota Susenas Maret dan PDRB ADHK",
          "consistency": "Perbedaan interval pengumpulan: Susenas & PDRB tahunan kontinu, Podes tri-tahunan (2014, 2018, 2021, 2024)",
          "missingness": "Data Susenas/PDRB <3% missing; Data Podes memiliki missingness struktural 63.64% pada rentang panel 11 tahun (memerlukan interpolasi/forward-fill)",
          "known_issues": [
            "Pemekaran wilayah DOB Papua (2022) diselaraskan ke baseline 34 provinsi/514 kabupaten",
            "Survei Podes dilaksanakan dalam siklus 3 tahunan (2014, 2018, 2021, 2024)",
            "Variabel fisik jarak ke gardu induk tidak tersedia di data publik; diproksikan melalui rasio penerangan jalan umum desa (Podes)"
          ]
        },
        "limitations": [
          "Interpolasi Podes antar-gelombang harus diuji kekuatannya (robustness check) terhadap model 4-gelombang murni"
        ],
        "constraints": [
          "Susenas modul konsumsi dan kesejahteraan dirilis tahunan pada semester kedua"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "ds-bps-electricity-consumption-generation",
        "slug": "bps-electricity-consumption-generation",
        "name": "BPS Runtun Waktu Pembangkitan & Penjualan Listrik Sektoral",
        "description": "Data statistik ketenagalistrikan mencakup kapasitas terpasang pembangkit, produksi bruto/neto, pembelian dari IPP, dan volume penjualan tenaga listrik per golongan tarif (Industri, Rumah Tangga, Bisnis, Publik) serta captive power industri.",
        "domain": "infrastructure",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS Indonesia)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "Publikasi BPS Statistik Listrik 2020-2024 via bps-statistics MCP",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "geography": {
          "level": "Province",
          "coverage": "34 Provinsi & Wilayah Distribusi PLN"
        },
        "coverage": {
          "start": "2010",
          "end": "2024",
          "frequency": "Quarterly / Annual"
        },
        "granularity": "Provinsi / Wilayah Distribusi × Tahun / Triwulan",
        "sample_size": "34 Provinsi × 15 Tahun ≈ 510 baris observasi tahunan",
        "variables": [
          {
            "name": "penjualan_listrik_industri",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Volume penjualan tenaga listrik PLN kelompok tarif industri I1-I4 (MWh)",
            "unit": "MWh"
          },
          {
            "name": "penjualan_listrik_rumah_tangga",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Volume penjualan tenaga listrik PLN kelompok tarif rumah tangga R1-R3 (MWh)",
            "unit": "MWh"
          },
          {
            "name": "penjualan_listrik_bisnis",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Volume penjualan tenaga listrik PLN kelompok tarif bisnis B1-B3 (MWh)",
            "unit": "MWh"
          },
          {
            "name": "kapasitas_terpasang_pembangkit",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Daya terpasang pembangkit tenaga listrik PLN dan non-PLN (MW)",
            "unit": "MW"
          },
          {
            "name": "produksi_listrik_bruto",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Total energi listrik yang dibangkitkan (GWh)",
            "unit": "GWh"
          },
          {
            "name": "susut_jaringan_transmisi_distribusi",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Susut tenaga listrik dalam jaringan transmisi dan distribusi (GWh / %)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "captive_power_manufaktur",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Daya dan produksi listrik dari pembangkit mandiri industri manufaktur IBS (kWh / kVA)",
            "unit": "kVA"
          },
          {
            "name": "pertumbuhan_pdrb_manufaktur_triwulanan",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Laju pertumbuhan PDRB sektor industri pengolahan triwulanan ADHK 2010",
            "unit": "%"
          }
        ],
        "data_quality": {
          "missingness": "Data runtun waktu nasional dan wilayah kerja PLN relatif lengkap",
          "known_issues": [
            "Sebagian data historis dikelompokkan berdasarkan Unit Induk Wilayah (UIW) PLN yang mencakup multi-provinsi",
            "Survei Captive Power BPS diterbitkan secara reguler sejak 2014"
          ]
        },
        "constraints": [
          "Publikasi tahunan rilis pada akhir tahun berikutnya (T+1)"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "ds-bps-food-security-inflation-monthly",
        "slug": "bps-food-security-inflation-monthly",
        "name": "BPS Runtun Waktu Bulanan Ketahanan Pangan, NTP & Inflasi",
        "description": "Dataset runtun waktu bulanan yang menghubungkan indikator harga produsen pertanian (NTP, It, Ib, KSA produksi padi) dengan indikator harga konsumen (IHK 90 Kota dan Inflasi Makanan).",
        "domain": "agriculture",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS Indonesia)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-05",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS WebAPI Subject 3 / 1498 / Var 1 via bps-statistics MCP",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "geography": {
          "level": "Province / City",
          "coverage": "34 Provinsi Sentra Pertanian & 90 Kota Pemantauan IHK"
        },
        "coverage": {
          "start": "2018-01",
          "end": "2024-12",
          "frequency": "Monthly"
        },
        "granularity": "Provinsi / Kota IHK × Bulan observasi",
        "sample_size": "34 Provinsi × 84 Bulan = 2.856 baris waktu bulanan",
        "variables": [
          {
            "name": "inflasi_kelompok_makanan",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Inflasi Kelompok Makanan, Minuman, dan Tembakau MoM / YoY (Var ID 1890)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "luas_panen_produksi_padi",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Luas Panen, Produksi, dan Produktivitas Padi KSA (Var ID 1498 / Var ID 23)",
            "unit": "Hektar / Ton / Ku/Ha"
          },
          {
            "name": "nilai_tukar_petani_ntp",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Nilai Tukar Petani Gabungan menurut Provinsi (Var ID 10)",
            "unit": "Indeks (Tahun Dasar)"
          },
          {
            "name": "nilai_tukar_petani_tanaman_pangan_ntpp",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Nilai Tukar Petani Tanaman Pangan (Var ID 14)",
            "unit": "Indeks (Tahun Dasar)"
          },
          {
            "name": "indeks_harga_diterima_petani_it",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Indeks Harga yang Diterima Petani (Var ID 11)",
            "unit": "Indeks"
          },
          {
            "name": "indeks_harga_dibayar_petani_ib",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Indeks Harga yang Dibayar Petani (Var ID 12)",
            "unit": "Indeks"
          },
          {
            "name": "inflasi_umum_bulanan",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Inflasi Umum Bulanan M-to-M (Var ID 1)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "indeks_harga_konsumen_ihk",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Indeks Harga Konsumen 90 Kota (Var ID 1709)",
            "unit": "Indeks"
          }
        ],
        "data_quality": {
          "missingness": "Data lengkap 2018–2024 untuk 90 kota IHK dan 34 provinsi NTP",
          "known_issues": [
            "Perubahan tahun dasar IHK dari 2018=100 ke 2022=100 pada rilis awal 2024",
            "Metode KSA padi diimplementasikan secara resmi sejak 2018"
          ]
        },
        "constraints": [
          "Rilis bulanan setiap awal bulan (hari kerja pertama BPS)"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "ds-bps-human-development-district-panel",
        "slug": "bps-human-development-district-panel",
        "name": "BPS Panel Indeks Pembangunan Manusia 514 Kabupaten/Kota",
        "description": "Panel data tahunan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) beserta 3 dimensi penyusunnya (kesehatan/UHH, pendidikan/RLS-HLS, standar hidup layak/pengeluaran riil) pada 514 kabupaten/kota se-Indonesia.",
        "domain": "social",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS Indonesia)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-05",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS Indeks Pembangunan Manusia 514 Kab/Kota via bps-statistics MCP",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "geography": {
          "level": "Regency/City",
          "coverage": "514 Kabupaten/Kota"
        },
        "coverage": {
          "start": "2010",
          "end": "2024",
          "frequency": "Annual"
        },
        "granularity": "514 Kabupaten/Kota × Tahun",
        "sample_size": "514 Kabupaten/Kota × 15 Tahun = 7.710 observasi panel",
        "variables": [
          {
            "name": "indeks_pembangunan_manusia_ipm",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) Menurut Kabupaten/Kota (Var ID 7)",
            "unit": "Indeks (0-100)"
          },
          {
            "name": "angka_harapan_hidup_saat_lahir",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Angka Harapan Hidup saat Lahir (Dimensi Kesehatan) (Var ID 3)",
            "unit": "Tahun"
          },
          {
            "name": "rata_rata_lama_sekolah",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah Penduduk Usia 25+ (Var ID 5)",
            "unit": "Tahun"
          },
          {
            "name": "harapan_lama_sekolah",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Harapan Lama Sekolah Penduduk Usia 7+ (Var ID 4)",
            "unit": "Tahun"
          },
          {
            "name": "pengeluaran_per_kapita_disesuaikan",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Pengeluaran Riil per Kapita Disesuaikan (Dimensi Standar Hidup Layak) (Var ID 6)",
            "unit": "Ribu Rupiah/Tahun"
          }
        ],
        "data_quality": {
          "missingness": "Data lengkap 514 Kabupaten/Kota periode 2010–2024 (Metode Baru Seri 2010)",
          "known_issues": [
            "Kabupaten baru hasil pemekaran sebelum 2014 memiliki data yang dihitung secara retrospektif oleh BPS"
          ]
        },
        "constraints": [
          "Rilis IPM tahunan dilakukan pada bulan November/Desember setiap tahun"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "ds-bps-pdrb-structural-transformation",
        "slug": "bps-pdrb-structural-transformation",
        "name": "BPS Panel PDRB, Produktivitas Sektoral & Ketenagakerjaan",
        "description": "Panel data triwulanan dan tahunan PDRB ADHK 2010 menurut 17 lapangan usaha, pertumbuhan ekonomi, PDRB per kapita, dan penyerapan tenaga kerja regional.",
        "domain": "economy",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS Indonesia)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-05",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS PDRB ADHK 2010 Sektoral & Sakernas via bps-statistics MCP",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "geography": {
          "level": "Province",
          "coverage": "34/38 Provinsi"
        },
        "coverage": {
          "start": "2010",
          "end": "2024",
          "frequency": "Quarterly / Annual"
        },
        "granularity": "Provinsi × Triwulan (Q1–Q4) / Tahun",
        "sample_size": "34 Provinsi × 60 Triwulan ≈ 2.040 observasi panel triwulanan",
        "variables": [
          {
            "name": "laju_pertumbuhan_pdrb_adhk",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Laju Pertumbuhan PDRB ADHK 2010 Menurut Provinsi (Var ID 291)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "pdrb_adhk_sektoral",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "PDRB Sektor Industri Pengolahan, Pertanian, Perdagangan, Konstruksi (Var ID 286)",
            "unit": "Miliar Rupiah"
          },
          {
            "name": "pdrb_per_kapita",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "PDRB ADHB / ADHK Per Kapita menurut Provinsi (Var ID 288)",
            "unit": "Juta Rupiah/Kapita"
          },
          {
            "name": "distribusi_pdrb_daerah",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Distribusi Persentase PDRB Daerah terhadap PDRB Nasional (Var ID 289)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "penyerapan_tenaga_kerja_sektoral",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja per Lapangan Usaha Sakernas (Var ID 520)",
            "unit": "Orang / %"
          },
          {
            "name": "tingkat_pengangguran_terbuka",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Sakernas (Var ID 543)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "nilai_ekspor_impor_daerah",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Nilai Ekspor dan Impor Daerah (Var ID 8)",
            "unit": "Juta USD"
          }
        ],
        "data_quality": {
          "missingness": "Data PDRB ADHK 2010 konsisten sejak rilis tahun dasar 2010",
          "known_issues": [
            "Dampak pandemi COVID-19 pada 2020 menciptakan diskontinuitas struktural"
          ]
        },
        "constraints": [
          "Publikasi triwulanan dirilis sekitar 5–6 minggu setelah akhir triwulan"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "ds-bps-poverty-vulnerability-panel",
        "slug": "bps-poverty-vulnerability-panel",
        "name": "BPS Panel Sosio-Ekonomi, Kemiskinan & Ketenagakerjaan",
        "description": "Panel data tahunan/semesteran variabel kemiskinan, ketimpangan pengeluaran, ketenagakerjaan, dan standar hidup layak antar-provinsi dan kabupaten/kota dari Susenas dan Sakernas.",
        "domain": "social",
        "source_id": "src-bps",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "bps_mcp",
          "source_type": "bps_mcp",
          "source_name": "Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS Indonesia)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-03-05",
          "query_or_tool": "BPS Susenas Maret-September & Gini Ratio via bps-statistics MCP",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "geography": {
          "level": "Province / Regency-City",
          "coverage": "34 Provinsi / 514 Kabupaten-Kota"
        },
        "coverage": {
          "start": "2010",
          "end": "2024",
          "frequency": "Semi-annual / Annual"
        },
        "granularity": "Provinsi / Kab-Kota × Periode Semesteran (Maret & September)",
        "sample_size": "34 Provinsi × 15 Tahun ≈ 510 baris (Provinsi) atau ≈ 7.700 baris (Kab/Kota)",
        "variables": [
          {
            "name": "persentase_penduduk_miskin_p0",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Persentase Penduduk Miskin (P0) menurut Daerah (Var ID 184)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "jumlah_penduduk_miskin",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Jumlah Penduduk Miskin (Var ID 183)",
            "unit": "Ribu/Juta Jiwa"
          },
          {
            "name": "gini_ratio",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Gini Ratio Menurut Provinsi dan Daerah (Var ID 98)",
            "unit": "Rasio (0-1)"
          },
          {
            "name": "garis_kemiskinan",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Garis Kemiskinan Makanan & Non-Makanan (Var ID 182)",
            "unit": "Rupiah/Kapita/Bulan"
          },
          {
            "name": "tingkat_pengangguran_terbuka_tpt",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) Sakernas (Var ID 543)",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "pengeluaran_per_kapita_disesuaikan",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Pengeluaran Riil per Kapita Disesuaikan (Var ID 6)",
            "unit": "Ribu Rupiah/Tahun"
          },
          {
            "name": "rata_rata_lama_sekolah_rls",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah Penduduk Usia 25+ (Var ID 5)",
            "unit": "Tahun"
          },
          {
            "name": "angka_harapan_hidup_uhh",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Angka Harapan Hidup saat Lahir (Var ID 3)",
            "unit": "Tahun"
          }
        ],
        "data_quality": {
          "missingness": "Data lengkap pada agregasi provinsi 2010–2024; beberapa kabupaten pemekaran baru diimputasi ke data induk",
          "known_issues": [
            "Pemekaran 4 provinsi baru di Papua pada tahun 2022 memerlukan penyelarasan batas wilayah baseline 34 provinsi"
          ]
        },
        "constraints": [
          "Survei Susenas dilaksanakan dua kali setahun (Maret dan September)"
        ]
      },
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "ds-esdm-ebt-regional-balance",
        "slug": "esdm-ebt-regional-balance",
        "name": "ESDM & DEN Neraca Potensi dan Realisasi EBT Daerah",
        "description": "Kompilasi data sektoral capaian bauran energi baru terbarukan (EBT), kapasitas terpasang pembangkit EBT (PLTS, PLTA, PLTP, Biomassa), dan evaluasi target Rencana Umum Energi Daerah Provinsi (RUED-P).",
        "domain": "infrastructure",
        "source_id": "src-esdm",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "file",
          "source_type": "file",
          "source_name": "Kementerian ESDM & Dewan Energi Nasional (DEN)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13",
          "query_or_tool": "Audit dokumen fisik PDF Buku Bauran Energi DEN 2022 & Laporan HEESI ESDM",
          "verification_status": "partially-verified"
        },
        "geography": {
          "level": "Province",
          "coverage": "34 Provinsi"
        },
        "coverage": {
          "start": "2015",
          "end": "2024",
          "frequency": "Annual"
        },
        "granularity": "Provinsi × Tahun",
        "sample_size": "34 Provinsi × 10 Tahun = 340 baris observasi",
        "variables": [
          {
            "name": "persentase_bauran_ebt_daerah",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "target",
            "description": "Realisasi persentase bauran energi baru terbarukan terhadap total bauran energi primer daerah",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "target_bauran_ebt_rued",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Target persentase bauran EBT dalam dokumen perda RUED-P provinsi",
            "unit": "%"
          },
          {
            "name": "kapasitas_terpasang_plts",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Kapasitas terpasang pembangkit listrik tenaga surya (MWp)",
            "unit": "MWp"
          },
          {
            "name": "kapasitas_terpasang_plta_pltmh",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Kapasitas terpasang PLTA dan PLTMH tenaga air (MW)",
            "unit": "MW"
          },
          {
            "name": "kapasitas_terpasang_plt_biomassa",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Kapasitas terpasang pembangkit listrik tenaga biomassa dan biogas (MW)",
            "unit": "MW"
          },
          {
            "name": "kapasitas_fiskal_daerah",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Indeks kapasitas fiskal atau rasio pendapatan asli daerah terhadap total APBD",
            "unit": "Rasio"
          },
          {
            "name": "potensi_teknis_surya_daerah",
            "type": "numeric",
            "role": "feature",
            "description": "Potensi teknis energi surya berbasis radiasi harian rata-rata (kWh/m2/hari)",
            "unit": "kWh/m2/hari"
          }
        ],
        "data_quality": {
          "completeness": "Sebagian (partially-complete); sekitar 30 provinsi telah mengesahkan Perda RUED-P, namun data capaian kontinu 2015-2024 tidak lengkap di seluruh daerah",
          "consistency": "Terdapat perbedaan perlakuan biomassa tradisional (kayu bakar) antar-Dinas ESDM daerah serta perubahan standar SEEA pada Neraca Energi BPS sejak 2020",
          "missingness": "Data panel tahunan mengalami kekosongan di provinsi yang terlambat mengesahkan Perda RUED (seperti Kaltim) atau terdampak pemekaran 4 DOB Papua",
          "known_issues": [
            "Pelaporan realisasi capaian RUED-P provinsi oleh Dinas ESDM ke DEN mengalami jeda publikasi (reporting lag) 1-2 tahun (laporan nasional komparatif terakhir tahun 2022)",
            "Target RUED-P dalam dokumen Perda berformat interval 5 tahunan (milestone 2025/2050), memerlukan interpolasi linier untuk target tahunan kontinu",
            "Tidak tersedia public WebAPI dari Kementerian ESDM maupun DEN; data bersumber dari ekstraksi manual/semi-otomatis dokumen laporan HEESI dan Perda RUED-P DEN"
          ]
        },
        "limitations": [
          "Data belum terverifikasi melalui MCP/API resmi; verifikasi berstatus partially-verified berbasis audit dokumen fisik PDF pemerintah",
          "Pemekaran 4 DOB di Papua pada akhir 2022 memerlukan agregasi balik ke Papua & Papua Barat untuk menjaga konsistensi 34 provinsi baseline"
        ],
        "constraints": [
          "Data bersumber dari kompilasi publikasi tahunan HEESI Kementerian ESDM, Buku Bauran Energi Nasional DEN, dan dokumen Perda RUED Provinsi"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "literature": [
      {
        "schema_version": "1.0",
        "id": "lit-burke-2019-indonesia-electricity",
        "record_type": "canonical",
        "slug": "burke-2019-indonesia-electricity",
        "title": "Indonesian Electricity Sector Decarbonisation: Pathways, Barriers, and Policy Choices",
        "authors": [
          "Paul J. Burke",
          "Saleh Abdurrahman"
        ],
        "publication_year": 2019,
        "publication_type": "journal-article",
        "journal_or_venue": "Energy Policy",
        "volume": "131",
        "pages": "388-397",
        "publisher": "Elsevier",
        "doi": "10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.034",
        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.034",
        "abstract": "Indonesia faces crucial challenges in decarbonising its electricity sector given heavy coal dependency and rapid demand growth. This study evaluates structural bottlenecks, regulatory hurdles, captive power expansion in industrial estates, and policy opportunities for integrating renewable generation into the national grid.",
        "keywords": [
          "Indonesia",
          "electricity decarbonisation",
          "renewable energy",
          "coal power",
          "captive generation",
          "energy policy"
        ],
        "source_id": "src-scholarly-repository",
        "citation": "Burke, P. J., & Abdurrahman, S. (2019). Indonesian electricity sector decarbonisation: Pathways, barriers, and policy choices. Energy Policy, 131, 388-397. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.04.034",
        "provenance": {
          "acquisition_method": "web",
          "source_type": "web",
          "source_classification": "scholarly",
          "source_name": "Energy Policy Journal (Elsevier)",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14",
          "query_or_tool": "DOI resolver / Crossref metadata audit",
          "verification_status": "verified"
        },
        "verification_status": "verified",
        "document_ids": [
          "doc-burke-2019-pdf"
        ],
        "verification_details": {
          "metadata_verified": true,
          "content_verified": true,
          "research_interpretation_verified": false,
          "verified_by": "Solo Researcher",
          "verified_at": "2026-09-14",
          "notes": "Metadata verified via Crossref DOI resolution. Research OS interpretation remains separate from author findings."
        },
        "research_context": "Evaluates macro policy choices and industrial grid integration challenges in Indonesia's power sector.",
        "methods_summary": "Semi-structured policy analysis, sectoral historical trends, and electricity balance review.",
        "data_summary": "National PLN electricity balance, MEMR ESDM statistics, and industrial energy reports.",
        "findings_summary": "Identified high growth in off-grid captive coal capacity as a major risk factor slowing down grid-level decarbonisation commitments.",
        "limitations_summary": "Analysis conducted primarily at national level; lacks granular district-level panel data on captive power.",
        "relevance_notes": "Provides foundational literature evidence on the captive power barrier for candidate cand-captive-power-industrial-transition.",
        "literature_analysis": {
          "research_question": "What are the primary institutional, financial, and technical barriers to decarbonising Indonesia's electricity sector?",
          "study_design": "Qualitative and quantitative policy synthesis of national electricity data",
          "methodology": "Techno-economic and policy barrier analysis",
          "population_or_unit": "National electricity sector & industrial clusters",
          "geography": "Indonesia (National)",
          "data_sources": [
            "PLN Statistics",
            "ESDM Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics of Indonesia"
          ],
          "key_findings": [
            "Coal expansion lock-in and captive power agreements reduce incentives for grid renewable penetration.",
            "Regional grid overcapacity in Java-Bali coexists with reliability deficits in off-Java regions."
          ],
          "limitations": [
            "Does not model individual firm-level switching behavior across manufacturing subsectors."
          ],
          "research_gap": {
            "established": "Macro-level policies and power purchase agreements hinder rapid renewable transition in Indonesia.",
            "uncertain": "Extent to which industrial manufacturing plants are willing or able to retire captive fossil generation given reliability constraints.",
            "geographic_gap": "Lacks subnational district-level econometric modeling across Outer Island industrial corridors.",
            "temporal_gap": "Covers data up to 2018; misses post-2020 RUED implementation and recent nickel smelter captive boom.",
            "data_gap": "Did not leverage BPS Large and Medium Industrial (IBS) microdata or Podes village electrification quality surveys.",
            "methodological_gap": "Relied on descriptive sectoral analysis rather than causal or machine-learning nowcasting models.",
            "proposed_contribution": "Research OS candidate cand-captive-power-industrial-transition models firm-level captive power probabilities using BPS IBS and PLN regional statistics."
          },
          "relevance_to_candidate": [
            "cand-captive-power-industrial-transition"
          ]
        }
      }
    ],
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